Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 23.406814 28.016892 33.071095 38.994408 45.715839 53.075899 61.713666
2025-08-24 16.426214 22.430030 29.671186 38.919211 50.279406 63.639320 80.389049
2025-08-31 11.959616 18.249294 26.452586 37.659831 52.273310 70.372438 94.141194
2025-09-07 9.654350 16.189795 25.285375 38.400355 56.311209 79.377651 110.722820
2025-09-14 7.550396 13.911251 23.342645 37.653092 58.046303 85.248279 123.344781
2025-09-21 6.368090 12.747347 22.737228 38.556990 61.900395 93.927827 139.863706
2025-09-28 4.870465 10.740423 20.524901 36.772997 61.673279 96.879734 148.655658
2025-10-05 4.260676 10.137218 20.414099 38.097770 65.961139 106.221610 166.496210
2025-10-12 3.685603 9.471516 20.085132 38.992096 69.585715 114.707253 183.396116
2025-10-19 3.176582 8.822092 19.678795 39.677695 72.867007 122.768922 199.923132
2025-10-26 2.784436 8.329020 19.475005 40.649497 76.604180 131.604591 217.821076
2025-11-02 2.296435 7.502277 18.521357 40.202913 77.976896 136.875927 230.611768
2025-11-09 1.927816 6.901833 17.996550 40.601531 80.985289 145.126385 248.692993
2025-11-16 1.571721 6.231806 17.236292 40.504316 83.178021 152.260752 265.471722
2025-11-23 1.199820 5.379468 15.930619 39.203566 83.159300 155.832747 276.875857
2025-11-30 1.021069 5.037289 15.700823 39.967554 86.788894 165.379648 297.798149
2025-12-07 0.795320 4.443843 14.770566 39.196513 87.566405 170.249484 311.499071
2025-12-14 0.683724 4.206664 14.669014 40.129153 91.505998 180.484632 333.990121
2025-12-21 0.491648 3.547827 13.350308 38.288284 90.091437 181.610824 341.859951
2025-12-28 0.434520 3.435323 13.479656 39.655349 94.877290 193.467323 367.446246
2026-01-04 0.372649 3.266573 13.419594 40.578041 98.831913 204.005567 391.139753
2026-01-11 0.314627 3.081207 13.275827 41.285289 102.384184 213.944254 414.088322
2026-01-18 0.270932 2.946258 13.259341 42.287635 106.568366 225.117320 439.356730